Sports predictions: evaluate the evidence before the odds
Separate probability from price
A prediction is an estimate, not a result. Decimal odds of 2.00 imply a break-even probability of 50% before considering the bookmaker margin. For decimal odds d, the implied probability is 1/d. A short price does not make an outcome certain.
What to check before relying on a tip
| Check | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| Publication time and team news | A forecast made before a lineup change can be out of date. |
| Market and settlement rules | Full-time, extra-time and qualification markets describe different outcomes. |
| Track record | Consider every recorded selection, losses, odds and sample size; selected wins are not a reliable record. |
| Uncertainty | Injuries, rotations and limited data can weaken a forecast. |
We do not publish a winning prediction merely because an old URL contained the word “prediction”. Historical tips require their original date and context.
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No forecast guarantees a return. Do not treat gambling as income.